88% of mortgage brokers predict increased demand from first-home buyers

New research from Broker Pulse reveals a sharp divide in mortgage broker sentiment across customer segments, with first-home buyers expected to drive the strongest growth in the coming months. The data, drawn from 306 brokers across Australia throughout October, shows refinancing activity is also set to surge whilst investment lending appetite remains muted by comparison.

Key stats you need to know

• Nearly 9 in 10 brokers (88%) expect first-home buyer demand to increase, making it the most bullish segment by a considerable margin.

• More than half (54%) anticipate refinancing volumes to rise, with only 7% forecasting a decline in activity.

• Investment property lending is the most polarised segment, with expectations split almost evenly between increase (48%) and steady state (46%).

First-home buyers demand driven by guarantee scheme

• First-home buyers are the standout segment, with 88% of brokers expecting demand to increase compared to just 1% anticipating a decrease.

• This level of optimism surpasses all other customer categories by at least 34 percentage points, following the expanded First Home Guarantee scheme launch on 1st October.

• Only 11% of brokers believe first-home buyer activity will remain static, suggesting widespread conviction in the segment's momentum as eligible buyers respond to the 5% deposit threshold.

• The near-universal bullishness aligns with earlier Consumer Pulse findings that showed 16% of eligible buyers accelerating their purchase plans specifically due to the policy change, with 25% planning to use the scheme within two years.

This surge in first-home buyer demand validates the scheme's market impact, creating significant opportunities for lenders who can efficiently process First Home Guarantee applications and target this expanding cohort. The broker sentiment data reinforces what consumers signalled in September: the First Home Guarantee expansion is translating into genuine market activation. With lower deposit barriers removing a key constraint, first-time buyers who were previously priced out are now moving from consideration to action.

“When our Consumer Pulse survey showed 16% of eligible buyers accelerating their plans, it was a leading indicator. Now brokers are seeing that demand materialise in their pipelines. Brokers who have invested in effectively serving first home buyers ahead of the October launch are likely to capture a disproportionate share, whilst those still building that competency risk missing a significant wave of activity." commented Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence. 

Refinancing activity set to accelerate as borrowers move ahead of uncertain rate cuts

• More than half of brokers (54%) expect refinancing demand to increase in the coming months, with borrowers positioning themselves ahead of potential RBA rate cuts rather than waiting for relief. 

• Only 7% of brokers predict refinancing volumes will decline, whilst 40% anticipate activity levels will remain unchanged, suggesting a sustained shift in borrower behaviour.

• Refinancing sentiment is the second-strongest across all segments measured, trailing only first-home buyers in terms of growth expectations, as borrowers take control of their cost structures rather than banking on RBA intervention.

The surge in refinancing appetite comes as major banks remain divided on rate cut timing, with forecasts ranging from November 2025 (Westpac) to as late as May 2026 (NAB), creating urgency among borrowers unwilling to wait. With the cash rate holding at 3.6% following August's 25 basis point cut, lenders offering competitive switching deals are capturing disproportionate share from borrowers seeking immediate savings rather than speculative future benefits.

Michael Johnson commented, "The divergent forecasts from major banks, spanning November 2025 to mid-2026, have created a window where taking action today delivers more certainty than hoping for cuts tomorrow. Lenders who can offer compelling switching incentives and fast turnarounds are winning share, whilst those relying on loyalty or expecting borrowers to wait for rate relief are facing material attrition in their books."

About the research

This research is based on data from 306 mortgage brokers operating across Australia who completed the Broker Pulse: Residential Lending survey between 1 and 16 October 2025. Respondents represent a diverse range of aggregator groups, firm sizes and geographic markets. The findings are drawn from grid-based questions measuring expected demand changes across five key customer segments: first-home buyers, self-employed borrowers, self-managed super funds, refinancing customers and investment property borrowers. All data is unweighted and reflects the views of active brokers who submitted residential mortgage applications in the previous month.

Broker Pulse is a monthly survey of residential mortgage lenders conducted by Agile Market Intelligence. It is a community-driven knowledge base of lender performance that offers transparency to the market by surfacing these collective insights from the broker community. This empowers brokers to make informed decisions and enables lenders to benchmark and improve performance.

Participating brokers receive access to a bird’s-eye view of the lender benchmarking data each month. To sign up or for more information visit https://www.brokerpulse.com.au/.‍