Lending rebound sparks surge in business cashflow confidence

In the latest Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending, Agile Market Intelligence measured broker sentiment to gauge confidence levels across the commercial lending market. Results show brokers are increasingly optimistic about their clients’ overall business health, with key indicators trending positive.

In this article we also examine industries with significant shifts in forecasted market demand. Agriculture, wholesale trade and accommodation & food services show the largest increase in market demand. Meanwhile, growth expectations in transportation, arts & recreation, and media & telecommunication have moderated, and brokers are now forecasting steady demand rather than increases. 

Key stats you need to know

• Brokers’ outlook on their clients’ business fundamentals has shifted decisively positive, with cashflow (+18), revenue (+28), employee headcount (+7) all recording net positive sentiment after being negative last year.
  
  
• Different industries all recorded positive demand indices in July 2025, with agriculture leading the charge in forecast market demand in the next 3 months.
  
  
• Brokers’ positive outlook on their clients’ businesses together with positive demand forecasts across industries signal stability in the commercial lending space.

Client business health: cash flow optimism emerges

• Brokers report client cashflow outlook (+18) and employee headcount (+7) are both up by +3 points in July relative to the previous quarter’s outlook index.
  
  
• Customers’ revenue outlook leveled off at a positive outlook of +28, maintaining consistently strong optimism.
  
  
• Brokers also report a net positive outlook in customers’ financing requirements, slightly down compared to the previous quarter. 

We analysed broker sentiment by tallying the percentage of brokers expecting business conditions to improve minus those expecting conditions to worsen, creating a net sentiment score. The index ranges from -100 (all brokers pessimistic) to +100 (all brokers optimistic), and a positive score indicates more brokers are optimistic about their clients’ prospects. 

Brokers are reporting the most encouraging signs for client business health in months, with an upward trend in outlook for cashflow and employee headcount. The sustained improvement suggests that the economic headwinds earlier in the year may be easing. Revenue and financing requirements are also seen as leveling off with healthy positive outlooks. Relative to last year’s outlook, all four indicators point to a business community that is cautiously moving from survival mode to growth planning.

"The turnaround in cash flow expectations is telling us that businesses are moving beyond just managing through uncertainty to actually seeing light at the end of the tunnel," said Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence.

‍Agriculture and wholesale trade lead growth expectations

• Agriculture saw 43% of brokers expecting increased demand, from only 24% in June, rallying its demand index to +35 demand index.
  
  
• Wholesale trade’s demand index is back at +26, after seeing a dip in June 2025.
  
  
• Transportation demand expectations moderated to +21, down from +33 in the previous period.
  
  
• Arts & recreation fell to 0 (from +18), while media & telecommunications dropped to +19 (from +24).

Market demand index is calculated by taking the proportion of brokers expecting increased demand in the next three months minus those expecting decreased demand. This July, agriculture saw the largest jump in demand expectations reaching +35 in July, and sustaining an upward trend since February. Wholesale trade bounced back from last month’s softening, demonstrating the sector’s underlying resilience. These traditional industries are showing renewed strength as business confidence returns to fundamental economic activities. Meanwhile, previously strong-performing sectors have seen expectations moderate as more brokers forecast stable, rather than increasing demand.

“Agriculture and wholesale trade are emerging as the clear bright spots, showing how broker expectations can shift quickly when confidence takes hold in key sectors,” said Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence.

Market outlook: stability replaces volatility

• No industry recorded negative demand expectations, indicating broad market stabilisation.
  
  
• Business outlook has shifted to sustained positive sentiment from being deeply negative levels last year.
  
  
• Declining demand indices are movements toward sustained demand, rather than actual decreases.

The convergence of improving client health metrics and rebalancing industry demand expectations suggests the commercial lending market is entering a more stable phase. 

"We're witnessing a healthy maturation in the commercial lending market where unrealistic expectations are giving way to sustainable growth patterns," said Michael Johnson.

About the data

The Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending report is a community-driven benchmarking initiative capturing the experiences of commercial and asset finance brokers across Australia. The latest edition captures experiences for applications submitted throughout July 2025, with the survey conducted between 1st to 23rd August 2025. The report includes data across asset finance, business loans, and commercial mortgages, and is conducted by Agile Market Intelligence in partnership with the Commercial & Asset Finance Brokers Association (CAFBA).

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