Loan demand forecasts remain strong across Australian industries; economic disruptions keep brokers wary

Financing demand is expected to strengthen across key industries, though real estate and manufacturing remain under pressure.

Agile Market Intelligence asks what commercial brokers forecast loan demand across loan types and industries will be, and examines how market conditions impact their outlook.

Measured through a loan demand index, which is calculated by subtracting the number of brokers expecting a decrease in demand from those expecting an increase, the survey captured sentiments of 388 commercial brokers in the month of June and revealed renewed optimism over the next 3-month period across multiple industries. 

Key stats you need to know 

• The mining industry’s loan index climbs to +22, its highest in 2026, while construction shows renewed interest (+16).
• Real estate continues to lose steam, as its 3-month loan demand index drops to its 6-month low (-3).
• 75% of brokers find economic disruptions and regulatory changes as key concerns over the next 3 months.

Financing appetite expected to grow among the service and mining sectors in the next 3 months

• Forecasted demand from mining remains strong at +22, reflecting a steep growth since April.
• Accommodation and food services show renewed demand expectations since April.
• Demand forecasts for real estate and manufacturing continue to plunge.

The report revealed that while brokers anticipate a decline in business loans (secured, unsecured, line-of-credit, or debtor financing), the market will see an uptick in commercial mortgages and even steeper growth in asset financing, following a downward trend since the March plunge. 

The financial and insurance services sector emerged as the top industry with the strongest demand projection over the next 3 months (+28), although it has notably dropped several percentage points since April. The mining industry follows at +22, and professional services at +21.

At a loan demand index of +15, businesses in the accommodation and food services industry also received a positive loan demand outlook from brokers. 

On the other end of the spectrum, real estate (-3) and manufacturing (-22) businesses have sustained declining expectations on loan demand. 

“The expected rebound in commercial mortgages and asset finance reflects growing confidence among businesses, although demand remains mixed across industries.” Said Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence.

Economic disruptions and regulatory uncertainties concern brokers

• A steady 75% of brokers see economic disruptions as a critical concern for their businesses over the next 3 months.
• 75% are wary of legislative changes, marking a 24-percentage-point increase since December.

Economic or trade disruptions have remained a critical concern among brokers since February, with 21% expressing significant concern, 31% moderate concern, and 23% reporting they are “somewhat concerned”.

Additionally, the June-collected data showed an increasing share of brokers expressing concern about regulatory and legislative impacts on their businesses. Brokers expressing significant concern grew from 5% in December 2025 to 28% in May 2026, and those expressing at least “somewhat concerned” grew from 51% in December to 62% in February 2026, and finally to 75% in May. 

Nevertheless, these concerns stand against the backdrop of a forecasted increase in loan demands across multiple industries.

"Australian businesses continue to demonstrate resilience. While economic and regulatory challenges remain front of mind, our latest survey shows sustained optimism for commercial lending activity over the coming months, particularly across service-based industries and the mining sector," said Michael Johnson.

About the research

The Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending report is a community-driven benchmarking initiative capturing the experiences of commercial and asset finance brokers across Australia. The latest edition captures experiences for applications submitted throughout January 2026, with the survey conducted between 1st and 25th June 2026, with a total usable sample of 388 mortgage, finance and commercial brokers, including 130 active commercial brokers. The report includes data across asset finance, business loans, and commercial mortgages, and is conducted by Agile Market Intelligence in partnership with the Commercial & Asset Finance Brokers Association (CAFBA).