One in three brokers expect more challenging commercial lending environment in Q4

Gathering sentiment from active commercial brokers monthly, Agile Market Intelligence’s Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending survey tracks movement in financing demand forecasts from businesses across Australia.

Following an increase in inflation rate in September, hopes for another RBA rate cut have disappeared. Effectively, commercial brokers projected softening financing demand and a tighter lending market.

Key stats you need to know 

• Projected demand for business loans dip in September, but net expected financing demand remains solid at +45.

• Brokers see obtaining financing as more challenging for clients in the September quarter (32%) than in June (24%).

• The commercial lending environment is expected to become more challenging in the next 3 months according to 25% of brokers.

Commercial brokers project net-positive but declining month-on-month financing demand

• Business loans remain decisively positive at +45, but current score marks a 13-point dip from August.

• Forward-looking demand for equipment and asset financing drops sharply, from +52 in August to +32 in September.

• Businesses projected to lock-in commercial mortgage rates as month-on-month net expected demand climbed by 1 point, now at +44.

To extract overall broker sentiment from the survey results, we subtracted the percentage of brokers expecting a decrease in financing demand from the portion expecting more clients per loan type, obtaining their net sentiment score.

After climbing sharply to +58 in August, the forecasted net sentiment score for business loans slid 13 points in September, as it now sits at +45. Commercial brokers also expect fewer clients to dive into huge purchases in the next 3 months, as net positive forward-looking demand for asset and equipment financing dips to +32, a sharp, 20-point decline from August’s +52.

Meanwhile, despite the recent rise in inflation rate, and RBA’s announcement to keep the cash rate at 3.6%, broker expectations on mortgage financing remain steady, as net positive sentiment for September (+44) sits just 1 point above that of August.

“Broker sentiments remain positive across all three commercial loan types, but it’s slowed down. Brokers are expecting their clients to proceed with caution over the coming quarter,” said Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence.

Lending environment expected to get more challenging for commercial debtors

• 32% of brokers see the September quarter as a challenging time for commercial borrowers, up 1.3 times from 24% the previous month.

• Year-end optimism is thinning among commercial brokers, as September quarter leaves only 15% expecting borrowing to be easier - a huge downgrade from 34% last June.

When asked about their perception of the relative difficulty in obtaining financing over the September quarter, brokers registered muted optimism, as 32% now believe it has become more difficult for their clients, climbing from only 24% in June. Brokers also shared that the commercial lending environment is only expected to get more challenging in the next 3 months.

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“With rate cut speculations ruled out for November, commercial broker expectations also seem to have adjusted accordingly. Brokers will have to work closely with their clients to make sure they get financing approval and land the best rates,” said Michael Johnson.

About the report

In October 2025, Broker Pulse launched a new survey format, resulting in increased engagement. This new survey gathered responses from 133 active commercial brokers, collected between the 1st and 25th October 2025. Brokers were asked to share their experiences with the lenders they worked with throughout September, rating them across turnaround time, credit assessment, BDM interactions, and the overall broker journey. 

Broker Pulse is a monthly survey of residential and commercial mortgage lenders conducted by Agile Market Intelligence. It is a community-driven knowledge base of lender performance that offers transparency to the market by surfacing these collective insights from the broker community. This empowers brokers to make informed decisions and enables lenders to benchmark and improve performance.

Participating brokers receive access to a bird’s-eye view of the lender benchmarking data each month. To sign up or for more information visit www.brokerpulse.com.au.