Traditional industries show mixed broker outlook for final quarter, services more optimistic

Agile Market Intelligence’s Broker Pulse Commercial Lending tracks broker-forecasted lending activity across industries for the next 3 months.

According to the latest figures, active mortgage, finance, and commercial brokers believe agriculture is likely to sustain its increasing borrowing appetite. The latest survey results also showcase the recovering services sectors, such as healthcare and financial and insurance services. However, traditional and trade industries such as manufacturing continue to exhibit dwindling projections, while mining sustains a downhill trend in borrowing expectations.

Key stats you need to know 

• Agriculture maintains upward momentum; projected to have the strongest borrowing appetite in the next 3 months at a demand index of +45.  

• Manufacturing loses steam; 3-month loan demand index drops to its lowest in 6 months at +6.

• Healthcare shows the steepest rise in the 3-month demand index at +41 in September, climbing 14 points since August.

Projections unstable for manufacturing, retail trade; mining consistently lags

• The manufacturing loan demand forecast drops sharply to +6 and exhibits a fluctuating trend.

• Retail trade has yet to stabilise as demand forecasts sit at +11 and zigzag in the last three months.

• Mining’s demand index fell to +14 and continues a downhill trend since May.

To calculate the market demand index, we took the portion of brokers expecting increased demand in the next three months and subtracted those expecting decreased demand. While some sectors enjoyed strong recoveries, demand forecasts for many traditional and trade industries remain uncertain. The share of brokers expecting increased activity within manufacturing is now down to 2 in 10, slashing 50% from the previous reporting month, and bringing its demand index down to +6. Meanwhile, retail trade sits at +11, also undoing gains from the previous reporting period. As for mining, the downward slope initiated in June still persists, and the demand index currently sits at +14. The only traditional industry consistently growing in demand forecast is agriculture, now at +45.

“We’ve seen fluctuating demand forecasts for the traditional and trade industries throughout the year. It’s quite possible that these are caused by these industries being more sensitive to international trade policies,” said Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence.

Services sector sees rebounders and stable climbers

• Services sector regains broker demand forecast for the final quarter of 2025.

• Healthcare, financial and insurance services regain momentum as demand indices increase to +41 and +43, respectively.

• Professional services and real estate maintain stable loan demand expectations with respective indices sitting at +41 and +43.

September marked a turning point for service industries, with multiple sectors showing strong recovery and stable growth. Healthcare demonstrated the steepest rise, climbing 16 points from August to reach a demand index of +43, ending its  6-month slump. Financial and insurance services also bounced back, breaking its 6-month downhill trend and closing September at +43, with more brokers expecting an uptick in activity within the industry. Meanwhile, professional services and real estate continue to stabilise. The former recovers to +41 after a momentary dip in August and the latter climbs subtly to +43.

“September’s turning point for service industries suggests that businesses in this sector are showing greater resilience and appetite for capital investment. It’s a very different picture from the manufacturing industry.” said Michael Johnson.

‍About the research

The Broker Pulse Commercial Lending report is a community-driven benchmarking initiative capturing the experiences of commercial and asset finance brokers across Australia. The latest edition captures experiences for applications submitted throughout September 2025, with the survey conducted between 1st to 25th October 2025, with a total usable sample of 133 active commercial brokers. The report includes data across asset finance, business loans, and commercial mortgages, and is conducted by Agile Market Intelligence in partnership with the Commercial & Asset Finance Brokers Association (CAFBA).