Brokers forecast sustained growth in demand for business, commercial, and asset finance

Agile Market Intelligence’s latest Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending research tracks broker sentiment across three loan categories: business loans, commercial mortgages, and equipment finance. Based on monthly net indexes, the findings reveal a steady rise in forward-looking demand expectations, particularly in unsecured business lending and equipment finance.

Key stats you need to know

• The net demand index for business loans reached +57 in April 2025, its highest level across the 11-month period.
  
  
• Commercial mortgage expectations climbed 21 points between March and April 2025, peaking at +54.
  
  
• The equipment finance index rose from +13 in July 2024 to +49 in May 2025, indicating strong recovery.

Business loan sentiment is holding strong

• The business loan index has remained above +49 for 11 consecutive months, reaching a high of +57 in April 2025. May 2025 posted a similarly strong index of +56, with more brokers expecting increases than at any point before December.
  
  
• Expectations for increased demand have held above 50% since November 2024. Fewer than 3% of brokers have expected a decrease in any given month since mid-2024.
  

The sustained strength in business loan expectations indicates a stable market for unsecured and working capital lending. Brokers appear confident in ongoing SME borrowing activity, potentially driven by refinancing needs or strategic reinvestment.

“We’re seeing a consistent uplift in demand for working capital and short-term funding. SMEs are clearly prioritising liquidity and planning ahead, not just reacting to pressure,” said Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence.

Commercial mortgage demand is rebounding

• The commercial mortgage index climbed from a low of +16 in July 2024 to +54 in April 2025. The largest single-month gain was +21 between March and April 2025.
  
  
• Sentiment softened slightly in May to +42 but remains well above the 11-month average. Expectations for demand to remain steady have consistently been above 50%.
  
  
• Negative sentiment has remained muted, with less than 10% expecting declines in most months.
  

The upward trend in commercial mortgage expectations suggests renewed activity in the commercial property sector. Brokers are increasingly confident in future lending volumes, potentially reflecting a stabilisation in market conditions or property yields.

“Commercial property is cyclical but brokers are clearly seeing signs of movement. A more stable rate environment may be unlocking previously stalled deals,” said Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence.

Asset finance sentiment is accelerating

• The asset finance index grew from +13 in July 2024 to +49 in May 2025. Index readings remained above +45 from January to March 2025 before dipping and recovering in May.
  
  
• May’s reading of +49 is near the peak of the 11-month range. A relatively higher share of brokers anticipate declines in this category, averaging around 15%.

Equipment and asset finance expectations are trending upward, suggesting increased capital investment among businesses. The category’s faster growth trajectory may reflect easing supply constraints, fleet upgrades, or broader digital transformation efforts.

“Capital investment is picking up across the board. Equipment finance is often the first to move when businesses start spending again,” said Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence.

About the Report

The Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending report is a community-driven benchmarking initiative capturing the experiences of commercial and asset finance brokers across Australia. The latest edition captures experiences for applications submitted throughout May 2025, with the survey conducted between 1st to 20th June 2025. The report includes data across asset finance, business loans, and commercial mortgages, and is conducted by Agile Market Intelligence partnership with the Commercial & Asset Finance Brokers Association (CAFBA).

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